Spain is pulling olive oil off the market: what it means for prices

For the first time ever, Spain has ordered its olive oil mills to keep part of their production off the market. Since 6 November 2026, every mill must store 12% of the oil it produces in the 2026/27 season — around 188,000 tonnes — until 30 September 2027. Spain produces almost half of the world's olive oil, so the decision matters for shoppers far beyond Spain, from France to Germany to Romania.

Why Spain is doing this

After two drought years sent prices to record highs, the harvest has bounced back. Spain's regions forecast 1,602,596 tonnes of olive oil this season, 23% more than last year, on top of more than 357,000 tonnes already in storage.

That surplus has pushed the price farmers get down fast. In early November, Spanish producers were receiving about €3 per kilo for extra virgin olive oil, compared with around €4 a year earlier. Farmers' groups warned that many traditional groves can't cover their costs at that level.

The withdrawal uses a mechanism in Spain's olive oil marketing rules, which EU law allows producing countries to use temporarily when supply is far above normal. It can only be triggered when stocks plus expected production reach 120% of the average of the previous six seasons — and this year they did.

How it works

The ministry can lower the 12% if new harvest estimates or price trends justify it.

Will olive oil get more expensive?

This is the key question for shoppers, and the honest answer is: probably not much — but it may stop getting cheaper.

• Prices are already far below the peak. In early October 2026, a litre of supermarket own-brand extra virgin olive oil cost about €4.35–4.45 in major Spanish chains. In 2023, some extra virgin brands reached around €15 a litre.
• The aim is to put a floor under prices. By holding back supply, Spain wants to keep producer prices from sliding further, which also limits how far shelf prices fall.
• Not everyone agrees. Spain's competition authority, the CNMC, warned that withdrawing oil could raise prices and reduce choice for consumers. The consumer group FACUA called the decision scandalous, arguing it protects producers at shoppers' expense.
• Other countries may feel it too. Because Spain sets the tone for world prices, analysts in Greece and Italy expect the move to support prices in their markets as well.

There is no shortage — 12% of a very large harvest is being stored, not destroyed, and it can come back onto the market later.

What to do now

1. Don't stockpile. Supply is plentiful and prices are stable; panic-buying is unnecessary.
2. Compare own-brands. Supermarket own-brand extra virgin oil is often close in quality to big brands and noticeably cheaper.
3. Buy bigger when it's on offer. 3- or 5-litre tins are usually cheaper per litre — worth it if you use olive oil daily.
4. Store it well. Keep oil away from heat and light, close the cap tightly, and use an opened bottle within a few months for the best taste.
5. Keeping an eye on household costs? See also our guide to fuel prices across Europe this winter.

Sources

• Maldita.es: questions and answers on the 12% olive oil withdrawal (Spanish)
• Euronews: Why Spain is taking 188,000 tonnes of olive oil off the market
• ESM Magazine: Spain to hold back 12% of olive oil production after bumper harvest
• Agronews Castilla y León: CNMC warns withdrawal could raise prices (Spanish)
• Greek City Times: Spanish olive oil strategy could keep Greek prices higher